Will Grayscale's sell-offs come to an end sooner than expected?

Thought of the week

After the short-term “turmoil” in the digital assets market following the Bitcoin spot ETF approvals, a certain “calm” is gradually returning, which is leading to support and the first positive changes. New products/industries always need a certain amount of time to return to normality. Once this is achieved and the “new” becomes an integral part of the asset class, positive developments usually follow.

Digital Asset News

New reports have discussed and analysed the four biggest and most important trends for digital assets in 2024.
The four possible trends are as follows:
Trend 1: Bitcoin
The combination of the recent release for “direct” Bitcoin index funds (ETFs) and the upcoming halving is likely to be the driving force for the market-leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin in the new year.
Trend 2: Tokenisation
2024 could also finally be the year in which real assets increasingly migrate to the blockchain. Tokenisation makes it possible for the first time to break down large real assets such as real estate into small digital components and make them accessible for proportionate investments.
A survey conducted by Ripple in 2023 shows that almost 72% of managers from the financial sector surveyed want to work with tokenisation in the next three years.
Trend 3: GameFi
Many experts expect blockchain games to celebrate their big breakthrough in 2024 by leaving behind their poor game quality, which has massively hindered adoption so far, in the new year.
Trend 4: AI
The burgeoning hype and upcoming changes in artificial intelligence could also lead to some very hyped projects in 2024.

The chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), Rostin Behnam, warns that the recent approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) could be misinterpreted as a general green light for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. In a keynote speech on 26 January, Behnam made it clear that the regulatory regime for Bitcoin spot ETFs could be misunderstood by retail and institutional investors alike after the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) decided to approve 11 such applications on 10 January.

“There is still no firm regulation to address the opaque and inconsistent practices in the cash markets for digital assets.”

He thus responds to Gary Gensler’s statements and wishes to express that caution should continue to be exercised in the US regulatory dispute.

BlackRock’s exchange-traded Bitcoin index fund (ETF) reached USD 2 billion in assets under management on 26 January, just two weeks after its debut on the major stock exchange Nasdaq.

According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, the price performance of Bitcoin has recently caused the fund’s market capitalisation to rise to a whopping USD 2.11 billion within one day. The price of the cryptocurrency exceeded the USD 42,000 mark for the first time in almost seven days, following an initial sell-off or crash after the launch of the various Bitcoin ETFs on 11 January.

“Assets under management (AUM)” is a term used to describe the total market value of all financial assets held by a fund on behalf of its clients. This means that BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) leads the race for investor capital just ahead of Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) with $1.8bn in inflows over the last 10 days.

BlackRock is using its market reputation as the world’s largest asset manager to attract a wider audience to its crypto investment product.

Digital Asset Market

The majority of digital assets experienced only minor price changes last week. The net outflows from the Grayscale Trust, which exceeded the USD 500 million mark on several days last week, decreased significantly towards the end of the week. This was positively received by market participants and led to an upswing from the support levels that had formed. Overall, Bitcoin spot ETFs now appear to be slowly returning to “normality” and inflows and outflows are settling at healthy levels.
If the various selling pressures (Grayscale, FTX, miners, etc.) slow down or stop, the market could switch to a bullish trend.
The narrative of the Bitcoin halving is not yet playing a role in the media, but could also lead to positivity in the near future.
On a weekly basis, the overall market is once again up ~0.6%.
For the coming week: Bitcoin and the digital assets market could be facing a “make or break” week!

Chart technicals

From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now above half of the support zones formed at ~$40,000 and could test the resistance levels at ~$43,000-$44,500 in the course of the week. In a positive scenario, liquid altcoins such as Ether, Solana and co. could outperform Bitcoin and make larger price jumps.

The next price targets in a positive development: ~$43,500, ~$44,700, ~$45,300

The next price targets in the event of a negative performance: ~$41,250, ~$38,600 ~$37,000

Trading idea

If the market returns to the support zones that have formed and confirms them, this would be a good entry point for short to medium-term trades. Similarly, if there is a clear breakout to the upside, the market should switch to a bullish structure. In the long term, these current price levels continue to be interesting for early positioning ahead of the halving.

Weekly overview

As usual, we are also providing detailed videos for those who want to delve deeper into the subject.


Mit dem Laden des Videos akzeptieren Sie die Datenschutzerklärung von YouTube.
Mehr erfahren

Video laden