Will a strong support formation or a longer negative trend follow?

Thought of the week

Fundamentally strengthening market-relevant events, positive global developments and yet no rising prices indicate a consolidation that will sooner or later end in volatile breakouts. This transitional phase can last weeks or months and should be approached with a certain degree of calm at all times.

Digital Asset News

Rising operating costs and lower rewards are taking their toll on Bitcoin miners, but according to one crypto analyst, the situation is far from catastrophic.
“We’re in a hash tape inversion phase, and blocks are arriving about 14 seconds slower than they should. This means there is less hashrate online and blocks are being found a little slower,” explained James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode.
“About 5% of the mining hashrate is in trouble right now,” Check explained, referring to the amount of processing and computing power provided to the network through mining.
After the Bitcoin Halving on 20 April, the Bitcoin hashrate began to decline as mining companies began to shut down unprofitable mining rigs. The halving takes place every four years, during which the miners’ rewards are halved.

The halving on 20 April reduced mining rewards from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC.
Like digital assets, the mining industry is undergoing consolidation and reorganisation.
Several asset managers filed revised applications for an exchange-traded Ethereum index fund (ETF) with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on 21 June.

VanEck, BlackRock, Grayscale and Invesco Galaxy Digital published updated S-1 registration applications after the close of trading on Friday. Later in the day, Fidelity also filed a new S-1 form with the regulator.
The documents submitted by VanEck show that the Ethereum ETF has a management fee of 0.20%. This puts it on par with competitors such as Franklin Templeton, which charges 0.19% management fees. BlackRock has not yet announced how much its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA) will charge investors for management.
According to Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas, VanEck’s fee “puts some pressure on BlackRock to at least stay below the 30 basis points”.

The Ethereum ETFs could therefore be closed every day from now on.
Ether could fall to as low as $2,400 following the launch of exchange-traded ether spot funds (ETFs), says Andrew Kang, founder and partner of Mechanism Capital, a venture capital firm specialising in cryptocurrencies.

A crash to $2,400 would be a drop of almost 30 per cent from the current price.
Kang said that unlike Bitcoin, Ether attracts less institutional interest, there are few incentives to convert spot Ether into ETF form, and the network’s cash flows have not been very impressive.
“How much upside would an ETH ETF offer? I would say not much,” Kang said, adding:
“After the ETF launches, I expect a price of $2,400 to $3,000.”

The predicted price could be a significant step backwards for the asset, as Ether reached over $4,000 back in March when Bitcoin hit a new all-time high. It almost reached the same level again a few days before the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved Ether ETFs.

Kang expects spot Ether ETFs to attract 15% of the inflows that spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen, which is in the 10-20% range estimated by Bloomberg ETF analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart.

Digital Asset Market

Market report including trading idea

The majority of digital assets experienced a trading week characterised by negativity and falling purchasing power.

Digital assets are becoming quieter in the media, even though the upcoming Ethereum ETFs and their inclusion in the US presidential election campaigns would certainly offer relevant incentives. Accordingly, according to analysts, Ethereum could initially fall after confirmation of the ETFs before a new upswing is imminent. In addition, the SEC’s suspension of proceedings against Ethereum continues to fundamentally strengthen the market. Subsequently, volatile countermovements must / can be expected at any time, but the summer months are often months of transition in the digital asset sector.
Over the week as a whole, the market is down around -4.8%.

The forecast for the coming week is that support levels and slight upturns will prepare the market for a countermovement.

Chart technology

From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now in a broad trend channel between $60,000 and $70,000. This broad consolidation could quickly lead to rapid trend developments due to negativity and positivity. At the moment, however, the focus is on building support in order to avoid further sell-offs. $60,000 could therefore become a critical price region at which a “make-or-break” scenario could be expected.

The next upside price targets: ~$64,500, ~$66,000, ~$67,250

The next price targets in the event of a negative performance: ~$61,000, ~$60,000 ~$57,500

Trading idea

The focus should be on trend developments following support retracements. If these occur with high volume, long positions in almost all digital assets would be a sensible investment.

Weekly overview

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