If the market continues to be dominated by positive price trends, altcoins could outperform bitcoin in the coming weeks. This would cause a shift of capital from Bitcoin to Altcoins and represent the next stage of the “bull cycle”. However, this would only be possible if the media attention cools down and thus the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs is still delayed.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
After Bitcoin set a 17-month high this week, many observers are warning of a subsequent retracement, while other analysts, however, still see further room to the upside.
By looking at previous price cycles of the market-leading cryptocurrency, experts deduce that BTC still has room to go until the highest local high in the Fibonacci forecast model in question is reached at ~$45,000.
Four local highs have already been reached in the meantime, with the fourth even being just under 3.3% above this week’s best level of $36,368. Between these different highs, the bitcoin price goes through certain “phases”, the next of which is supposed to start in November according to the model.
This makes it clear that no rational forecasts can be made at the moment and that the market is functioning purely in terms of trends.
The impact of bitcoin halving on price performance is often overestimated, which is why the next halving in April could be quite different this time than in previous price cycles, according to a leading analyst.
Halving, in which every four years the rate of increase in bitcoin’s circulating supply is
is halved every year, is widely considered to be one of the main catalysts for BTC’s record runs to date.
So, although the narrative around “halving” is positive, the event itself does not necessarily guarantee a rise in the Bitcoin price.
After all, if the lower supply of new BTC is not accompanied by a correspondingly large demand, the price is unlikely to rise.
Moreover, halving is now a predictable event, meaning that all market participants can price in the reduction in supply in advance. Thus, the current price may reflect the potential impact before it even occurs.
“Things that we most expect to happen usually don’t happen,” as Bloomberg analyst Mike McGlone also points out, therefore, with regard to the highly anticipated event.
“And that’s what worries me. There is a supposed consensus”.
By that time, we will also already know whether the Bitcoin Spot ETFs have been approved and what impact they have had on the market. Thus, the halving could fade into the background a bit, especially since the impact of the halving will not be visible until months later.
The trial surrounding Sam Bankman-Fried and FTX is entering its final phase. SBF is using his testimony to blame his fellow FTX executives – most notably Ellsion, Wang, and Singh – for the crypto exchange’s fraudulent actions.
Jurors overseeing the criminal trial of Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried heard testimony for the first time from the former FTX CEO, who largely denied knowledge of fraudulent activity at the crypto exchange. “At the time, I wasn’t entirely sure what had happened,” as Bankman-Fried explained regarding the alleged loans to Alameda. He continued, “I thought the funds were being held in a bank account or sent to FTX in stablecoins. If Alameda kept it, I thought it would show up as a negative number on FTX.”
In all likelihood, this round-about approach won’t help him much, and a guilty verdict can be expected soon!
Digital Asset Market
From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is hovering around the yearly high formed at ~$35,500. Currently, little analytical data can be filtered from this. The market has been “flooded” by emotions of market participants. This leads, as described above, to strong rises, but also offers at any time the risk of a major price correction. Should the high for the year be broken again by further positivity, further rises are very likely to follow. Caution should be exercised at all times, as a cooling of media attention or a negative statement from the SEC could quickly cause turbulence.
From this I conclude: one should ride the wave until it breaks. Right now, rational decisions don’t seem “tangible.” These market situations occur with digital assets from time to time and need to be handled with care. Current investments can be managed with sound risk management, new investments should either have a long investment period or be rigorously hedged!
The next price targets in case of positive development: ~$35,750, ~$37,000, ~39,200
The next price targets in case of negative development: ~$33,500, ~$32,000, ~$30,500
Currently Bitcoin, offers no entry points for traders who follow the principle of “buy low and sell high”. Investments that are currently made are usually based only on the fundamental idea of further increases through triggered positivity or classic “FOMO” (the fear of missing out). If further sustained trends are established in the market, these could be well used as entries. Otherwise, wait for minor setbacks or significantly increase the risk of the positions. The time of low-risk entries now seems to have passed for the next few weeks!
As usual, we are also providing detailed videos for those who want to delve deeper into the subject.