Renewed global uncertainties and armed conflicts exacerbate the “unpredictability” of markets. Due to the many burgeoning conflicts and problems we are experiencing worldwide, there are many variables influencing the markets that cannot be concretely assessed / classified.
Therefore, a long-term view becomes much more difficult to present and temporary prevailing situations have to be considered and used more intensively.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
The next uptrend in the crypto market is expected to start in the second quarter of 2024, when bitcoin halving takes place, as macro investor and Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal predicts.
However, in doing so, the expert is convinced that despite the hype surrounding the halving, macro factors will play the main role in triggering the next bull market. “Macro is actually the dominant factor, and halving is really just a false narrative, but it doesn’t matter because it still works,” as Pal explains in an interview with Cointelegraph.
According to the report, the main catalysts favouring cryptocurrencies next year include central bank interest rate cuts and potential economic stimulus that could come ahead of the US presidential election.
About 50% of crypto investors invest in digital assets to improve their standard of living.
According to a new survey by crypto exchange Bitget released on 5 October, 46%, 44% and 41% of respondents in South Korea, Canada and Turkey, respectively, said improving their standard of living was their most important financial goal when investing in cryptocurrencies. Meanwhile, around 36 % of respondents in Malaysia and Taiwan also said that improving their family’s quality of life was more important than other pursuits.
Some 27% of female crypto investors in the United States and Turkey said they invest in cryptocurrencies to fund their children’s education, compared to only 5% in South Korea and Japan. In terms of investment amount, users from China showed the highest engagement, with 18% investing between US$50,000 and US$100,000, and another 19% investing between US$100,000 and US$500,000.
The survey was conducted between May and August and included over 1,500 participants from 20 countries in the European Union (EU), China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the USA and Canada.
The European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), the European Union’s (EU) stock exchange and trading regulator, published a second consultation paper on the planned Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) crypto regulatory framework on 5 October.
In the 307-page document, ESMA asks stakeholders for feedback on five MiCA topics, including sustainability indicators for decentralised ledgers, disclosure of inside information, technical requirements for crypto project designs (white papers), trade transparency measures and records for crypto asset service providers (CASPs).
Among the sustainability indicators, the authority includes quantitative metrics on energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and waste generation, as well as a qualitative statement on the impact of the use of hardware by blockchain nodes on natural resources.
In terms of trade transparency, ESMA proposes to require CASPs to report the date and time of trades, identification of crypto-assets, price information, quantity, settlement location and transaction ID.
ESMA also proposes to allow CASPs to store transaction data “in the format they deem most appropriate”, provided they are able to convert it to a specific format if required by the authorities.
Thus, the final form of MiCA is taking more and more shape!
Digital Asset Market
Chart-wise, Bitcoin is now once again at the upper edge of the trend channel at ~$28,000, having failed to breakout in recent days. Last week made clear that the resistance zones continue to represent major resistance, although the subsequent sell-offs were minimal. Based on the current situation in the digital assets market, a renewed upswing could provide a long-term push through these resistance zones. However, the focus should also be on falling prices this week, as the short-term price trend will also depend on developments in the Middle East.
The next price targets in case of positive development: ~$29,100, ~$29,700, ~30,400
The next price targets in case of negative development: ~$27,000, ~$26,500, ~$25,800
Currently, Bitcoin does not offer any risk-optimised entries. However, these could occur at any time if the volatility in the market increases. Due to the uncertain situation of the global financial markets this week, this movement can be positive or negative; currently, a slightly negative tendency prevails. In case of larger movements, a quick entry should be chosen and the risk minimised in the coming days.
Weekly overview
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