Bitcoin back to old strength or is it just a snapshot?

Thought of the week

Last week, digital assets saw their biggest inflows in several weeks. This was accompanied by positive inflation figures from the US, which gave “risk-on” markets in particular a strong boost (S&P500, Nasdaq, etc.) – fuelling hopes that the markets will be able to make it through the summer months on a stronger footing.

Digital Asset News

Five potential issuers of Ether (ETH) spot ETFs have filed amended 19b-4 applications after receiving last-minute feedback from the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
Some filings feature amendments from asset managers Fidelity, VanEck and Franklin Templeton, as well as joint filings from Galaxy and Invesco, and ARK Invest and 21Shares.
The amendments require Fidelity, Franklin Templeton and ARK 21Shares to remove the provisions for staking Ether.

“Neither the Trust, nor the Sponsor, nor the Custodian, nor any other person associated with the Trust will engage, directly or indirectly, in any action in which any portion of the Trust’s ETH is subject to Ethereum proof-of-stake validation or is used to earn additional ETH or to generate income or other returns,” Fidelity’s amended 19b-4 application states.

With these moves, approvals appear to be only a matter of time.
The approval of an ether spot ETF in the United States could drive the ether price to $10,000.
While the US SEC’s ETF approval process can take months, the launch of the ETF could be a significant catalyst for Ether’s price, according to Andrey Stoychev, the head of prime brokerage at Nexo.

Stoychev told Cointelegraph: “ETH ETFs in the US and similar products in Asia could be the driving force that helps the asset reach $10,000 by the end of 2024 and catch up with Bitcoin’s post-ETF performance.”
The Ether rally comes on the back of reports that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has made a U-turn on spot Ether ETFs, possibly due to political pressure. It is said to have asked ETF exchanges to update their 19b-4 filings.

While it is still difficult to predict exactly when a spot ETHER ETF will be authorised and traded, the SEC’s latest move is a positive sign, according to Nexo’s Stoychev:
“This apparent change in the perception of Ether ETFs could be a sign of a shift in the SEC’s attitude.”
Crypto-based investment products saw significant inflows last week, marking the second consecutive week of positive inflows since the recent market downturn.
According to CoinShares, digital investment products raised $932 million between 13 and 17 May, driven by an immediate reaction to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This showed that inflationary pressure is easing again. Despite higher outflows, weekly volumes remained relatively low at USD 10.5bn, in sharp contrast to the USD 40bn recorded in March.

“Interestingly, the inflows were a direct reaction to Wednesday’s lower than expected CPI report, with the last three trading days of the week accounting for 89 per cent of total inflows. This underscores our view that bitcoin prices have re-coupled with interest rate expectations.”
The CPI report on 15 May showed that inflation rose by 0.3 per cent in April, up from 0.4 per cent in March. Year-on-year, the CPI rose 3.4 per cent, driven by significant increases in the energy and food sectors.
In an earlier analysis, CoinShares Research noted that following the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January, the factors influencing the Bitcoin price are once again focussing on market expectations around interest rates.

Digital Asset Market

Market report including trading idea

The majority of digital assets experienced a very positive trading week and led to a significant trend reversal in the market. Bitcoin, as well as altcoins and Ethereum in particular, impressively demonstrated the opportunities that arise when a volatile outbreak occurs in the market.
Over the week as a whole, the market is up by around 10.4%.
The message for the coming week is: if further positivity drives the markets, altcoins in particular, which have not yet experienced any significant increases, could come into focus, otherwise new support zones are likely to be formed.

Chart technology

From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now once again hovering around the resistance level of ~$70,000 and has thus broken out of the previous trend channel to the upside. This ensures that the increased volatility in the market could lead to “surprising” movements at any time and that a meaningful assessment of the markets is only possible once they have “calmed down”. Until then, we must work with momentum and order flow.

The next price targets in the event of a positive development: ~$71,500, ~$73,000, ~$76,500

The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$68,000, ~$66,750 ~$65,000

Trading idea

The focus should be on reducing risk or rotating capital into altcoins that are still lagging market movements.

Weekly overview

As usual, we are also providing detailed videos for those who want to delve deeper into the subject.


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