After price breakout - can digital assets confirm the trend?

Thought of the week

In the digital asset space, “narratives” are often used to target short-term price changes. For example, outflows from Grayscale fell noticeably last week, resulting in an increase in net inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and a very positive week for the asset sector. This created a bullish narrative that could be used to push for further price changes in the media.

Digital Asset News

Bitcoin (BTC) could climb above USD 50,000 due to “squeeze”!
Although BTC’s climb is slowly slowing down somewhat, the market-leading cryptocurrency is still aiming for the top.
As the data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView show, the Bitcoin price is initially on the decline again after reaching temporary support at ~USD 47,000.

The recent climb was thus temporarily interrupted, with the end of the week on the stock markets in Asia and the US not exerting any additional pressure on the crypto market, but the weekend was more volatile than many market participants had expected.
We are getting a strong bounce and will attack USD 48,000 again,” as trader Jelle comments on the situation. He adds:
“The last big hurdle Bitcoin has to clear, after that there’s not much standing in the way of a new high for the year.”
US-based crypto exchange Coinbase predicts that voters – who have a focus on cryptocurrencies – will play a “significant role” in the 2024 elections in California.
In a corresponding blog post on 9 February, Coinbase cited data from the business intelligence company Morning Consult, which showed that 27% of Californians – around 8.2 million people – own cryptocurrencies. The majority of crypto holders in the state – 78% – say that policymakers should promote “new, innovative and disruptive technologies” and that many of them would vote for politicians who do so.
“California crypto owners overwhelmingly say they would be much more likely to support candidates who take pro-crypto and blockchain positions,” Coinbase noted. And further: “Nearly 4 in 5 California crypto holders say they would be more likely to support a candidate who supports the US crypto industry as a job creator and source of US geopolitical strength.”
Election years have always been seen as catalysts for the financial markets.
Because the new Bitcoin ETFs are already a resounding success, they could overshadow the resurgent DeFi and other major developments in the crypto market. The short-term focus on direct bitcoin index funds (ETFs) could be “a distraction” from the more important crypto trends that will emerge in the period following the ETF launches, warn Coinbase analysts David Duong and David Han.
In the latest Coinbase report called “Monthly Outlook: Post-ETF Trading Themes”, published on 8 February, the analysts point to a “short-term overstatement” of the impact on performance created by the inflow of $1.46 billion into Bitcoin (BTC) spot ETFs in January.
Although the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs represents a “watershed moment for the crypto-economy”, US Bitcoin ETFs currently account for “only 10-15%” of total spot Bitcoin trading volume on centralised exchanges (CEX) worldwide, the study’s authors said. Spot Bitcoin ETFs hold about 650,000 BTC, or 3% of the outstanding Bitcoin supply, the report added.
According to data from CoinMarketCap, trading volume totalled $29.5 billion in the last 24 hours. According to public trading data, 10 Bitcoin ETFs traded around $1.3 billion on 8 February, accounting for about 4.4% of BTC traded on crypto exchanges in the last 24 hours.

Digital Asset Market

The majority of digital assets experienced a positive trend and significant gains last week. This turnaround was driven by ever smaller “sell-offs” on the part of Grayscale, continued very strong net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs (BlackRock and Fidelity in particular stand out here) and global financial markets that continue to rush from peak to peak. In terms of news, on the other hand, it was a quieter week, making the positivity appear fundamental and not driven by media-driven short-term catalysts.
In terms of the week as a whole, the market as a whole is once again up ~10%.
The message for the coming week is: if Bitcoin is able to break through the $50,000 mark again, further positivity would follow.

Chart technology
From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now trading around the resistance levels formed at the beginning of the year at ~$48,000 and could reach new “highs” with further advances. Should there be a consolidating week, smaller setbacks could follow. The market trend should be closely monitored.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$49,700, ~$51,500, ~$53,450
The next price targets in the event of a negative trend: ~$47,000, ~$45,500 ~$44,300
Another bullish breakout would be a good market situation to either realise smaller profits or to reconsider positions and shift into altcoins. In the event of sell-offs or consolidation, stop losses should be tightened and the coming market situation should be monitored.

Weekly overview

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