Waiting for the All-Clear

Spotlight:

The dominant geopolitical headline was the announcement of a U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding, signed electronically by President Trump and Vice President Vance on Monday. The accord includes an immediate cessation of hostilities and commits to reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with a full reopening expected by Friday. The reaction across traditional markets was pronounced: Brent crude fell more than 4%, the S&P 500 gained 1.7%, the Nasdaq 100 surged 3.1%, and Asian equities jumped over 3%. Bitcoin, by contrast, barely moved in the immediate aftermath, briefly touching a 24-hour high of $67,217 before settling back around $66,045. This was the third ceasefire attempt between the parties, and Bitcoin had fully round-tripped the relief rallies that followed both the April ceasefire and the June 9 strikes. Many traders are waiting for the deal's formal signing in Switzerland on June 19 before treating any gains as durable. Further clouding the picture, Iran's semi-official state media reported that joint Iranian and Omani administration of maritime navigation services was added to the deal in its final minutes, a detail at odds with Washington's insistence on permanently toll-free passage.