Bitcoin extended its advance for a third consecutive week, rising from a weekend close of roughly $84,500 to trade near $85,500 at the start of the new week, after ranging between a Monday low of about $82,560 and a Friday high just above $87,200. Early on Monday, the price approached $87,000 before reversing, marking the second failed attempt in a week to clear the late-September peak near $87,400, which remains the highest level in eight months. The move caps a strong third quarter in which bitcoin gained around 42%, its best quarter since the end of 2024, while ether outperformed with a rise of roughly 70%. The week's main catalyst was a markedly weaker US labour report on Friday, which pushed Treasury yields lower and lifted risk assets broadly, with the Nasdaq 100 closing at a record high. Among other digital assets, ether traded around $2,700, Dogecoin led the majors with a gain of more than 3% on Monday, XRP and BNB added 1–2%, and Solana was flat.
Bitcoin Price. Source: Investing.com, Teroxx Research
US spot bitcoin ETF flows cooled noticeably after the prior week's exceptional $2.4 billion intake, the largest weekly inflow in nearly a year, which had turned year-to-date flows positive at around $934 million. According to Farside data, the funds recorded net inflows of roughly $83 million over the five sessions to October 2. A nine-day inflow streak ended with a $148.7 million net redemption on Wednesday, followed by a $102.7 million rebound on Thursday. Dispersion across issuers was wide: BlackRock's IBIT absorbed about $292 million from Monday to Thursday, including $195.6 million on October 1, while Fidelity's FBTC saw outflows of around $168 million and Grayscale's GBTC lost roughly $55 million. Total spot bitcoin ETF assets stand near $109 billion, about 6.4% of bitcoin's market capitalization. Spot ether ETFs moved in the opposite direction, posting net outflows of about $118 million after four consecutive days of redemptions led by Fidelity's FETH, a reversal from the nearly $690 million inflow of the previous week. Corporate treasury demand continued in the background, with Strategy adding 1,665 BTC to bring its holdings to 847,666 BTC.
Derivatives positioning points to a market that has shed meaningful leverage. Coin-denominated bitcoin futures open interest fell to around 628,000 BTC, a year-to-date low, following the September CME expiry and a combined drop of roughly 49,000 BTC across CME and perpetual futures over seven days. In a single 24-hour window during the week, about $434 million in crypto liquidations occurred, around three-quarters of which hit long positions, suggesting the dip toward $82,500 flushed out late leveraged buyers. In our view, a rally built on lower leverage is healthier than one driven by crowded perpetual positioning. However, repeated rejection in the $87,000–87,400 area, along with notable sell-side liquidity around $85,000–85,500, indicates supply remains heavy just below the eight-month high. Ether's third-quarter outperformance also came with thinner market depth: its order-book liquidity stands at roughly 35–45% of bitcoin's, down from at least 60% a year earlier, which can amplify price swings in both directions.
On the regulatory front, the focus has shifted from Congress to the agencies after the Senate failed in mid-September to advance the CLARITY Act market structure bill on a 49–50 cloture vote. On October 1, the SEC proposed a framework that would allow investment advisers and regulated funds to hold digital assets through qualified custodians, state trust companies or, in limited circumstances, self-custody, opening a 60-day comment period. Chair Paul Atkins noted that existing rules "have not kept pace" with the market, and the proposal addresses a long-standing infrastructure gap for institutions seeking direct exposure rather than ETF wrappers. Separately, the CFTC granted Coinbase a derivatives clearing organization license, completing its in-house derivatives stack, and Citi announced merchant stablecoin settlement capabilities with Coinbase. Agency-led rulemaking can deliver incremental progress, but it remains more exposed to reversal than primary legislation, meaning durable statutory clarity for the US market is still outstanding. For European clients, the MiCA framework remains a comparatively settled regime.
Macro conditions remained the dominant swing factor. US nonfarm payrolls rose by only 29,000 in September against a consensus of about 84,000, with combined downward revisions of 60,000 to the prior two months and the unemployment rate edging up to 4.2%. The data sharply reduced expectations of a further Federal Reserve rate increase at the October 28 meeting, with market-implied odds falling from roughly 70% earlier in the week to between one-quarter and one-third. Futures still lean toward one more hike before year-end, most likely in December. Inflation remains the main constraint, with the PCE price index rising 3.4% year-on-year in August, well above the 2% target. The 10-year Treasury yield, which recently reached its highest level since 2007, above 5.3%, briefly dipped below 5.2% after the release and stood near 5.25% on Monday, while the dollar firmed and the euro slipped to its weakest level since May 2025. In Japan, the Bank of Japan, which raised its policy rate to 1.25% on September 18, is now expected to move again in December rather than October, leaving the yen weak near 158 per dollar.
United States Non-Farm Payrolls. Source: Trading Economics, Teroxx Research
Geopolitics and energy continue to underpin the inflation backdrop that keeps yields elevated. The Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted amid the ongoing conflict between the US, Israel and Iran, and on September 27 Washington rejected an Iranian proposal to reopen the waterway within seven days in exchange for sanctions relief and an end to the naval blockade. Brent crude jumped more than 3% to near $108 per barrel in response before easing back to around $100–102 later in the week, and slipped a further 0.7% to roughly $101.50 on Monday after Saudi Arabia cut its official selling prices to Asia. Weekly transits through the strait have improved modestly but remain far below pre-war levels. We see oil holding near $100 as a key reason the Fed has been unable to pivot toward easing despite a softening labor market. Any decisive change in Hormuz flows, in either direction, would have direct implications for rates and, by extension, for digital asset valuations.
What It Means for Investors
In the near term, bitcoin is consolidating just below a well-defined resistance zone between $87,000 and $87,400. A sustained daily close above that area, ideally accompanied by a renewed pickup in spot ETF inflows rather than a rebuild of perpetual leverage, would confirm the breakout and open the way toward the upper $80,000s. Conversely, a failure to hold the weekly low near $82,500 would suggest the third-quarter advance needs a deeper consolidation. Spot prices are also trading close to JPMorgan's estimated production cost of around $85,000, a level that has historically served as a reference point for miner behavior. Key event risks in the coming weeks include US inflation data, the Fed's October 28 decision, and any shift in oil prices linked to the Strait of Hormuz. In our view, cleaner positioning after the open interest reset reduces the risk of a disorderly unwind, but the market remains sensitive to rate expectations while the 10-year yield trades above 5%.
Over the longer term, the structural picture continues to improve. Institutional access is broadening through ETF products with more than $100 billion in assets, persistent corporate treasury accumulation and a US regulatory approach that, even without the CLARITY Act, is moving toward clearer custody and clearing rules. The main headwind is a macro regime of elevated real yields and sticky inflation, which raises the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets. Investors should monitor weekly ETF flow trends and issuer dispersion, futures open interest and funding conditions, the path of Fed hike expectations and Treasury yields, the dollar, and oil prices as the clearest transmission channel from geopolitics to digital asset markets.
Bitcoin Holds Above $83,000 as ETFs Log Their Best Week Since October 2025
Bitcoin trades near $83,300 after US spot ETFs drew $2.4 billion, their best week since October 2025. A hawkish Fed and 5.2% Treasury yields set the limits.
