Market Pulse: October 2026
Within two weeks, oil traded above $110, the Senate blocked the CLARITY Act 49 to 50 and the Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time since July 2023. Any one of these could have ended the summer rally. Bitcoin absorbed all three and closed September about 7% higher, capping its best third quarter since 2017.
The open question for the fourth quarter is whether that floor holds when a 10-year Treasury pays 5.30%. The October edition of Market Pulse looks at who is buying, what the bond market is pricing and why a wave of AI listings could compete for the same risk capital.
Executive Summary: Bitcoin Holds Through the First Fed Hike Since 2023
September 2026 was the month the tightening cycle arrived, and digital assets absorbed it. On September 16 the Federal Reserve raised rates by 25 basis points to 3.75% to 4.00%, its first increase since July 2023, in a unanimous decision taken against open pressure from the White House. The bond market had moved first: the 10-year Treasury yield rose 54 basis points over the month to about 5.30%, its highest level since 2007, and the 30-year closed at 5.64%, the highest since 2002. Futures put roughly even odds on a second hike on October 28, six days before the US midterm elections. Against that backdrop Bitcoin closed September near $83,500, up about 7%, and Ethereum near $2,690, up about 9%, a third consecutive monthly gain for both and the close of Bitcoin's best third quarter since 2017.
