Bitcoin ended last week roughly 3% lower after a record exchange hack overwhelmed an otherwise orderly start. The asset closed near $80,000 on Sunday, October 25, and rose to $81,268 by Wednesday, before falling to $77,775 on Thursday and trading as low as about $76,200 on Friday, its weakest level since mid-September. The trigger was a breach at Binance on October 29, with losses estimated at $5.9 billion to $6.3 billion, the largest crypto theft on record. TRM Labs and Elliptic attributed the attack to hackers linked to North Korea. Bitcoin closed October at $77,424, down 7.3% and its weakest October in at least a decade.
The largest digital asset thefts on record, by value at the time of the incident. Source: TRM Labs, Chainalysis, Fortune, Business Standard, CoinDesk; Teroxx Research
ETF flows shifted from steady accumulation to caution within a single session. US spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $440.8 million over the first four days before a $643.2 million outflow on Friday left the week $202.4 million negative. Friday's redemptions were broad: IBIT lost $233.7 million, FBTC $201.0 million and ARKB $129.5 million, and no fund recorded an inflow. IBIT still took in $932.1 million in October, while the rest of the complex lost about $1.45 billion. Ether ETFs were weaker, with $431.4 million of outflows across all five sessions and a 23-day outflow streak, the longest since launch. Cumulative Bitcoin ETF inflows since January 2024 remain near $57 billion, so the institutional base is intact but not currently growing.
Daily net flows of US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, October 5 to 30, 2026.
Derivatives positioning amplified the decline. Futures liquidations reached about $1.57 billion over 24 hours, with Bitcoin contributing $522 million and Ether $361 million, and long positions accounted for the large majority. Aggregate open interest fell 3% to $136.3 billion, which points to forced deleveraging rather than aggressive new shorting. Options turned defensive: five of the six most-traded Bitcoin contracts were puts, led by the $74,000 strike expiring November 13, while 25-delta skew rose across tenors. Ether touched $2,170 before recovering to about $2,270 on Sunday, well below its late-September high near $2,700. BNB fell about 7% to $699, and the Fear and Greed Index dropped to 36, firmly in “fear” territory.
The response from industry and regulators was fast and partly contained the damage. Tether and Circle froze more than $2.4 billion of affected stablecoins, Binance reports around $3 billion verified as frozen, and co-CEO Yi He has pledged to cover all user losses. Phase-one Bitcoin withdrawals resumed on November 1, and Binance says about 95% of affected assets have been replenished, with a full proof of reserves expected around November 3. In Washington, SEC Chair Paul Atkins said on October 30 that “most crypto assets are not themselves securities,” while the CLARITY Act remains stalled after its cloture vote failed 49 to 50 in September. In our view, the episode underlines the value of segregated custody and of regulated stablecoin issuers able to freeze illicit flows.
Monetary policy offered no relief. The Federal Reserve held rates at 3.75% to 4.00% on October 28 in a 10-2 vote, with Governor Lisa Cook and Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25-basis-point hike. The statement upgraded growth to “strong,” described inflation as “elevated” and dropped forward guidance, and markets still price a December hike. September core PCE inflation came in at 3.1%, in line with consensus but above the prior 3.0%. The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 5.05% on decision day before ending the week at 4.93%, down 7 basis points. The dollar index was flat at 101.96, and the Bank of Japan held at 1.25% while signaling a more hawkish phase.
Key US and Japanese rates and inflation, week ending October 30, 2026.
Energy markets added a further layer of inflation risk. Brent's December contract expired at $117.64 on October 30 after touching $118, while the January contract settled at $113.43 and WTI at $104.12. Brent gained 13.6% in October, its fourth consecutive monthly rise. The drivers were escalating attacks: a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz was struck by an explosive device, Iran's Revolutionary Guards claimed further mine strikes that US Central Command disputed, and the Houthis claimed attacks on Saudi refining facilities. Qatari mediators returned to Tehran, and OPEC+ was expected to keep December output unchanged. In our view, oil above $110 keeps inflation expectations firm and limits the Fed's room to ease, a headwind for liquidity-sensitive assets such as digital assets.
What It Means for Investors
Near term, we see Bitcoin in a defensive range between roughly $76,200 and $82,000. Friday's low near $76,200 is first support, and a daily close below it would expose the $74,000 area, where put demand is concentrated. On the upside, reclaiming $80,000 and then the October 28 high near $82,000 would signal that the Binance shock has been absorbed. Confirmation would come from renewed ETF inflows, a clean proof-of-reserves publication and fully normalized withdrawals at Binance. Conversely, further outflows, new disclosures about the hack or a volatile reaction to the US midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, would argue for a retest of the lows.
Longer term, the week does not alter the structural case for digital assets, in our view. Around $57 billion of cumulative ETF inflows, an SEC that increasingly treats most tokens as non-securities and the speed with which stablecoin issuers froze stolen funds all point to maturing market infrastructure. The macro backdrop, however, is restrictive: a Fed debating hikes, 10-year yields near 5% and oil above $110 rarely support risk assets. Shorter-term investors should monitor daily ETF flows, funding rates and open interest, pricing for the Fed's December meeting, and Brent's behavior between $106 and $120. Counterparty risk also deserves renewed attention, with custody arrangements reviewed as carefully as market exposure.
Bitcoin Tests $80,000 as Brent Tops $116 Before the Fed
Bitcoin slipped toward $80,000 as Brent topped $116. Spot Bitcoin ETFs still took in a net $301 million. The Fed decides on October 28.
