Searching for Clarity Between Yields and Conviction

Spotlight:

Bitcoin slipped below $77,000 on Monday during Asian trading hours, capping a weekly decline of roughly 4.8% and reaching its lowest level since early May. The world's largest cryptocurrency had briefly traded above $80,000 earlier in the previous week before momentum faded. The pullback came as rising bond yields, climbing oil prices, and renewed geopolitical worries cooled appetite for higher-beta assets across global markets.

Treasury yields told much of the story last week. The 30-year yield closed at 5.13%, its highest level since 2007, while the 10-year yield pushed past 4.5% and reached a 12-month high. Polymarket traders are now pricing a 98% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates steady in June and a 94% probability of no move in July. Futures markets have also started to reflect modest odds of a rate hike later this year, a shift that increases the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bitcoin.