Loading…
Jannick Bröring
The digital assets market continues to experience intense downward pressure, a sentiment clearly reflected by the prevailing Extreme Fear reading on the widely followed Fear and Greed Index. Bitcoin is currently trading at $87,000, showing a modest rebound after briefly touching an intra-week low of $82,000, though it remains critically below the key $90,000 support level.
This price dynamic is being driven primarily by market mechanics and structural shifts rather than simple emotional sentiment. The total crypto market capitalization reflects this broad-based decline, having fallen 20% this month from approximately $3.73 Trillion in early November to settle around $2.99 Trillion today.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which served as the cycle's primary source of institutional demand following their launch, are now exhibiting persistent net redemptions. November outflows have been substantial, reaching $3.55 billion, nearly matching the all-time monthly record of $3.56 billion seen in February, marking a significant and concerning reversal of previously strong demand. This persistent selling pressure highlights a fundamental shift in investment flows.
Concurrently, the Stablecoin market is also mirroring this contraction in a significant way, with total supply dipping for the first time in several months. The subsequent reduction in the supply of tokens like USDE, for instance, underscores just how aggressively capital has been pulled from the system. This pattern strongly indicates that money is actively leaving the broader market ecosystem rather than simply rotating into less volatile assets on the sidelines.
The current selling pressure is further compounded by Long-Term Holders (LTHs) actively realizing accumulated profits throughout November. This behavior is evidenced by a noticeable drop in the LTH Supply metric and the occurrence of large transaction values originating from previously dormant coins. Even major, widely publicized purchases during the recent dips by institutional entities and sovereign states alike have failed to contain the price slump, underlining the strength of the current selling dynamic.
With the market actively seeking consolidation but lacking any new, powerful catalysts to reverse the trend, a significant, immediate rebound will be difficult to achieve in the short term. On the macroeconomic front, expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have improved significantly: the odds for a 25 basis point rate cut have now reached the 70% range according to the CME Watch Tool. This improving macro outlook provides a potential tailwind, counterbalancing some of the current structural selling pressure. While the long-term investment thesis remains broadly intact, the near-term environment may still be characterized by turbulence, though reinforced by more favorable cyclical mechanics due to the shift in rate expectations.
The digital assets market is expected to face continued volatility, as it attempts to stabilize and consolidate around current price levels. With Bitcoin critically positioned below the $90,000 support, there is undeniable structural selling pressure evidenced by persistent net outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs and a contracting Stablecoin supply, suggesting capital is actively exiting the ecosystem. Short-term price rebounds are still likely to be constrained by profit realization from Long-Term Holders, meaning a significant, immediate price recovery remains challenging.
However, this structural weakness is now offset by a significantly improving macroeconomic outlook. Expectations for interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve have shifted favorably, with the odds of a 25 basis point rate cut now reaching the 70% range according to the CME Watch Tool. This provides a potential tailwind for risk assets, offering a crucial counter-balance to the prevailing mechanical selling pressures. While the immediate path may still involve turbulence, this favorable macro shift suggests that the market's long-term downside risk is being mitigated, potentially leading to stronger support near the $85,000 region as positive cyclical mechanics begin to exert influence.
November 13 - Ethereum
State of Ethereum Q3 2025
Ethereum ends 2025 up just +3.5% after extreme volatility, but strong fundamentals—rising stablecoins, corporate demand, and ETF resilience—signal long-term strength.
