State of Bitcoin Q4 2025

Executive Summary: Bitcoin in Q4 2025

Q4 2025 marked a dramatic reversal for Bitcoin, delivering a -23% return—the second-worst quarterly performance in Bitcoin's history, surpassed only by Q4 2018's -42%. After reaching an all-time high of $126,000 in October, Bitcoin fell sharply to a low of $80,700 on November 22—a drawdown of over 35% from the peak—before stabilizing around $93,000-$94,000 by year-end, where it trades today.

This outcome defied Bitcoin's historical seasonal pattern, where Q4 has typically been its strongest period with an average return of 77%. The quarter was characterized by risk-off sentiment, overleveraged position liquidations, fading hopes of macro easing, and AI overvaluation fears that triggered forced selling across crypto markets.

Despite the challenging quarter, on-chain metrics suggest Bitcoin remains far from oversold territory. The MVRV Z- Score currently sits at 1.20—a neutral reading well above bear market lows (below 1) but significantly below the overheated levels of 3.7+ seen at previous cycle peaks. This indicates the market experienced a healthy correction rather than a structural breakdown.