The US Federal Reserve (FED) is most likely planning to cut interest rates this week. These could be 0.25% or 0.50%. A ‘relatively’ high interest rate cut could lead to increased volatility and price rises in the short term. Whether new highs can be reached depends above all on the behaviour of institutional investors based on this interest rate decision.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
According to a footnote in a September 12 court filing, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reversed its long-standing characterisation of cryptocurrencies as ‘securities’ and intends to use more cautious language going forward.
This backwards roll resulted from the SEC’s ongoing lawsuit against crypto exchange Binance for allegedly offering and selling unregistered securities. In a complaint filed in 2023, the SEC identified ten crypto assets on the Binance platform as ‘securities,’ including the tokens of Solana
(SOL), Cardano (ADA) and Polygon (MATIC)
The SEC ‘regrets any confusion’ caused by its characterisation of these tokens as ‘crypto-asset securities’ and ‘no longer uses the shorthand term’, according to the 12 September document.
‘By using the term ‘crypto-asset securities,’ the SEC is not referring to the crypto-asset itself as a security,’ the agency explained. Instead, a token’s status as a security ‘consists of the entire set of contracts, expectations, and understandings that centre on the sale and distribution of the [crypto asset],’ the regulator said, citing an earlier filing.
This makes it clear that the SEC needs to change course and fundamentally strengthen digital assets!
As the 2024 election season begins in the United States, the crypto industry and the broader crypto community have implicitly agreed to support ostensibly pro-crypto candidates. Dr Tonya M. Evans, a law professor at Pennsylvania State University, sat down with Cointelegraph in this context to explain the impact of cryptocurrencies on the upcoming elections.
According to Dr Evans, the upcoming presidential race in particular will be decided by razor-thin margins – which is why many issues can still potentially influence the election, including cryptocurrencies.
However, the law professor also noted: ‘If you’re a multi-issue voter who also happens to be interested in cryptocurrencies, you’re far less likely to be swayed by either candidate on that issue alone. ’For the US presidential candidates vying for the contested states, it is strategically important to capitalise on these razor-thin margins.
The professor also expressed confidence that support for cryptocurrencies and digital assets is bipartisan and transcends political power plays – a view borne out by the $14 million spent by political action committees on cryptocurrency lobbying to date.
Bitcoin is being viewed more bullishly by traders as the BTC price has been able to hold at USD 60,000 for some time.
With an increase of ~6-8% in the past week, BTC/USD is ready for a ‘bullish momentum’ according to a recent analysis.
Bitcoin price indicators offer reason for renewed BTC optimism on the short-term timeframe this week.
After a difficult period in which support was tested, the daily chart of BTC/USD is now recovering to important levels, as shown by both the Ichimoku cloud and the Relative Strength Index (RSI).
Trader Titan of Crypto has pointed out exactly this development on X.
‘BTC has reclaimed the Tenkan and Kijun and made it above the Kumo cloud,’ he confirms in a commentary on an Ichimoku chart.Ichimoku is a classic analysis tool that has signalled an upward move in Bitcoin over the past 18 months, is also preparing to retest resistance on the weekly timeframe.
Data confirms that the two Ichimoku trendlines could now come back together. ‘At the same time, the RSI has broken through a multi-month trend line,’ he concludes.
‘If this is confirmed, bullish momentum could follow in the coming days.’
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
The majority of digital assets experienced a week that produced positive price movements. Bitcoin in particular was able to establish a positive trend from the low support zones and tackle the resistance zone at ~$60,000. Institutional investors also appear to be investing capital in digital asset products again, with positive inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs serving as an indicator. The ‘summer slump’ therefore appears to be coming to an end, which means that more volatile price developments can be expected in the coming months. The Fed’s interest rate cuts, which many market participants are eagerly awaiting, could also cause volatility and attract attention over the course of the week.
If further positivity influences the market, further price rises are the most likely option.
For the coming week: Institutional inflows and a dovish FED stance could help the market fundamentally and ensure upswings.
Chart technique
From a technical chart perspective, Bitcoin is trading around the $60,000 zone and has been able to offset most of the previous losses. The price zone in which Bitcoin is currently ~$60,000 should serve as a resistance zone and, in the event of a positive price trend, as a support zone. Depending on the Fed’s decision and the resulting volatility, the trend channel for Bitcoin should widen significantly in the coming week.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$62,000, ~$65,000, ~$67,500
The next price targets in the event of a negative trend: ~$56,000, ~$55,000 ~$52,500
Trading idea
Ethereum / Ether (ETH) is currently lagging behind the market, resulting in a volatile trend that appears lucrative with a slightly higher risk of entry.
Weekly overview
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