A typical drop in volatility and price swings during the summer months is a key component of the markets. This type of recovery leads to other market phases being traded all the more actively and volatile and the “pent up” volume flows into the market in a more targeted and compact manner.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
Bitcoin spot funds (ETFs) domiciled in the United States have continued to attract investor interest despite outflows in August.
Accordingly, on August 16, data from SoSoValue showed that weekly net inflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs totaled $32.58 million, in contrast to outflows in previous weeks. On August 2, net outflows for spot Bitcoin ETFs amounted to USD 80.69 million, while on August 9 they reached USD 169 million.
The continued positive inflows into bitcoin spot ETFs come at a time when their total net asset value stands at $54.35 billion. The ETF net asset ratio, which represents the market value of ETFs as a percentage of the total market value of Bitcoin, currently stands at 4.65%.
Historical cumulative net inflows total $17.37 billion, further illustrating the growing acceptance and integration of Bitcoin spot ETFs into the broader investment landscape. According to a report by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on August 14, even Morgan Stanley now holds USD 188 million worth of shares in a Bitcoin spot ETF.
US Treasury Attorney Scott Johnsson has stated that the US Marshals Service (USMS) is almost certainly in the process of selling Bitcoin seized from the infamous Silk Road marketplace.
Johnsson’s claims are based on a service agreement signed between the USMS and Coinbase in June. According to Johnsson, this agreement states that once the agency’s Bitcoin funds reach Coinbase Prime, this is a clear sign that the USMS has either sold or is in the process of selling these assets.
According to onchain analytics firm Arkham Intelligence, the US government transferred nearly $600 million worth of Bitcoin to Coinbase on August 15. The Bitcoin in question was sent to a Coinbase Prime Deposit Wallet.
Historically, large transactions by significant holders, known as “whales”, can have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin. Investors therefore often track these transactions to anticipate potential selling pressure.
The US government is currently the largest geopolitical holder of Bitcoin.
The recently transferred 10,000 Bitcoin was originally seized in the Silk Road raid in 2022. In this action, the Department of Justice announced the seizure of 50,000 BTC on the darknet marketplace.
According to crypto analytics platform CoinGlass, Bitcoin could still have “more room to run” as open interest (OI) has continued to rise amid recent price action.
In an Aug. 16 X-Post, CoinGlass noted that it was “somewhat unusual” that open interest had not yet reacted to Bitcoin (BTC) prices.
“I think there is still room for improvement.”
The analytics platform further reported that the total OI on Bitcoin futures reached $29 billion on August 16 and has been rising all week, while BTC spot prices fell by 5% in the previous two days.
The open interest refers to the total number of Bitcoin futures that have yet to settle or expire.
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
The majority of digital assets experienced a week in which volatility fell sharply and hardly any noteworthy or tradable situations stood out.
Media coverage of digital assets is currently “calming down” somewhat, there were no market-driving influences and the inflows and outflows of institutional investors into Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs were also at very low levels, making it clear that there is currently a “summer lull”.
The Fear and Greed Index as a sentiment barometer underlines this development with a neutral value of 43.
On a weekly basis, Bitcoin remains at the levels of the previous week and overall market capitalization has only changed marginally.
The message for the coming week is that if the market breaks out of its low volatility, there could be some very tradable market movements.
Chart technology
From a chart technical point of view, Bitcoin is still trading around the resistance and previous support zones at ~$60,000. Due to the low volumes in the past week, there is no discernible trend, just a consolidation around these zones. This could change at any time and lead to a new trend, which should be easy to trade in the future.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$62,500, ~$65,600, ~$68,000
The next price targets in the event of a negative trend: ~$54,500, ~$50,000 ~$48,500
Trading idea
As soon as the market shows increased volumes in combination with rising volatility, this trend (positive or negative) could be traded with split orders and multiple entries.
Weekly overview
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