Bitcoin back above $70,000 this week?!

Thought of the week

The Bitcoin and Blockchain Conference in Nashville was a huge success in the short term for digital assets. Many fundamentally sound foundations were laid and future prospects shared. Whether this will lead to a long-term upswing depends on whether institutional investors will invest more as a result of this conference.

Digital Asset News

Johnny Ng, a member of Hong Kong’s Legislative Council, has announced his intention to work with various stakeholders to assess the feasibility and potential benefits of including Bitcoin in Hong Kong’s financial reserves.
In a recent post on X, Ng emphasized the increasing global recognition of Bitcoin, which is often referred to as “digital gold” due to its perceived value and potential protection against inflation.
He also emphasized the importance of including Bitcoin in the strategic fiscal reserves, suggesting that under the right regulatory conditions, including BTC in the reserves could benefit Hong Kong’s economic framework.
Bitcoin and Web3 technologies are gaining traction globally. Bitcoin’s decentralization and limited supply have made it a valuable asset in the eyes of many investors.

Ng acknowledged in his proposal that a thorough investigation and compliance with existing regulations were essential to ensure the strategic and safe integration of Bitcoin into Hong Kong’s tax reserves.
His proposal was a response to Republican presidential candidate and former US President Donald Trump’s speech at the Bitcoin 2024 conference on July 27, which proposed something similar for the US.

The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) has proposed new guidelines for stablecoin issuers to strengthen regulatory oversight and minimize financial risks. The proposal comes amid growing concerns about the potential impact of stablecoins on regulated institutions and the financial ecosystem as a whole.
Stablecoins are digital assets that are pegged to the value of traditional currencies or other assets and have seen increasing adoption. However, their rapid growth has also raised global regulatory concerns due to potential illegal activity and abuse.

In its July 26 guidance, FINMA emphasized that stablecoin issuers must adhere to the same anti-money laundering (AML) rules as traditional financial institutions. This includes identity checks on stablecoin holders and establishing the identity of beneficial owners.
“The stablecoin issuer is therefore considered a financial intermediary within the meaning of anti-money laundering legislation and must, among other things, establish the identity of the stablecoin holder as a client in accordance with the applicable obligations (Art. 3 AMLA) and the identity of the beneficial owner (Art. 4 AMLA),” says FINMA.

Asset manager BlackRock sees “very little interest” from its clients in cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) and therefore doesn’t anticipate many more crypto exchange-traded index funds (ETFs) outside of the two leading cryptocurrencies, Robert Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, revealed in a speech at the Bitcoin 2024 crypto conference on July 25 in Nashville, Tennessee.
“I would say that our customer base today has an overwhelming interest in Bitcoin and then a little bit in ETH… and there’s very little interest today beyond those two,” Mitchnick said in a panel titled ”From Strategy to Innovation: BlackRock’s Bitcoin Journey.”
“I don’t think we’re going to see a large catalog of crypto ETFs,” he further predicted.
BlackRock launched its first crypto exchange-traded index funds – the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and the iShares Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHA) – in January and July respectively.

However, not all asset managers are of the same opinion. Franklin Templeton, which also launches ETFs for BTC and ETH, is optimistic about further crypto ETFs, including a Solana ETF, for example.

“In addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, there are other exciting and important developments that we believe will drive the crypto space forward,” Franklin Templeton wrote in an X-Post on July 23.

Digital Asset Market

Market report including trading idea

Donald Trump was the keynote speaker at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville, Tennessee. Donald Trump’s participation and his positive statements on cryptocurrency have influenced the market. The possible creation of a strategic Bitcoin reserve for the United States led to speculation and positive market reactions.
The introduction and development of Ethereum ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) was another significant event. These ETFs allow investors to invest in Ethereum without buying the cryptocurrency directly. This has piqued the interest of institutional investors and further boosted the acceptance of Ethereum as an asset class. Grayscale’s high fees, which led to large outflows and temporary price losses for BTC ETFs, are also an issue for ETH ETFs, but do not appear to be as significant, meaning that there is no overall market impact.
The market for digital assets thus experienced a positive trading week, with the Bitcoin conference held being a success, particularly in fundamental terms.

On a weekly basis, market capitalization is roughly at the same level as the previous week, but Bitcoin in particular and the surprising stability of Ethereum are fueling hopes for further positivity in the first week of August.

The message for the coming week is that if the fundamental events are also reflected in the inflows of investment products, prices could continue to rise.

Chart technique

From a chart perspective, Bitcoin is now trading around the resistance zone of ~$70,000, highlighting the market strength and dominance of this asset. If this resistance zone is breached, the all-time high could be tested again, but this would require larger capital inflows than in recent weeks. The rest of the digital asset market cannot quite keep up with this development, but is also showing positive signs. This week may therefore see increased volatility in both directions, with a bounce off the resistance zones and a cooling of the market in particular being factors to consider in risk management.

The next price targets in case of a positive development: ~$70,500, ~$72,500, ~$76,000

The next price targets in the event of a negative development: ~$67,000, ~$64,000 ~$62,500

Trading idea

Altcoins that did not radiate the positivity of Bitcoin or are still not at the levels they were at a few weeks ago could outperform Bitcoin in a generally positive market situation. Otherwise, small setbacks should be bought back with a narrow stop loss or existing positions should be treated and held with a slightly wider stop loss.

Weekly overview

As usual, we are also providing detailed videos for those who want to delve deeper into the subject.

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