Major market setbacks and sell-offs cause a wide variety of reactions among investors. While some sell in panic, others buy and others wait for trend reversals to open positions – proper risk management is the most important factor for long-term success. We at Teroxx have been pursuing this philosophy for more than half a decade and are able to assess such temporary market situations at an early stage and implement suitable measures to secure capital.
Thought of the week
Digital Asset News
The Bitcoin price fell below $50,000 for the first time since February, hitting a low of $49,351 before moving back towards the $52,000 mark. With BTC dominance reaching 58% while both the altcoin and stock markets slump, over 17% of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization has been temporarily flushed out of the market. According to CoinMarketCap, the total market capitalization of the crypto market was around $2.16 trillion, but fell to a low of around $1.76 trillion on August 5. In the early hours of August 5, the start of the Bitcoin price drop led to 600 million dollars worth of leveraged long positions being liquidated by traders. This “market crash” also saw Ether plummet, losing almost 20% of its value in just two hours. At the time of writing, the ETH price was around $2,200, having recovered minimally from a low of $2,172.
Since August 2, the market has seen its biggest three-day sell-off in almost a year, losing over $500 billion, while the S&P 500’s performance fell by over 4% in the same period, tech stocks lost more than 10% of their value and Japan’s benchmark index suffered a sell-off of over 11% in just one day.
With fears of recession resurfacing, poor employment data in the United States and sluggish growth in leading technology stocks, the market slump may have just begun. Unlike the week of July 29, when the Crypto Fear & Greed Index reached a reading of 67 – categorized as “greed” – the current reading of 26 is deep in “fear” territory.
The European Union is preparing to introduce its new regulation called Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA), the first comprehensive regulatory framework for the crypto industry.
This would also make the European Union (EU) the first jurisdiction with a holistic regulatory framework for digital assets.
So while this is a pivotal moment for crypto regulation in general at a legislative level, the practical implementation could pose significant challenges, according to Hedi Navazan, Head of Compliance and Regulatory Affairs at Crystal Intelligence.
The compliance expert began by explaining to Cointelegraph that MiCA aims to create a harmonized framework for the issuance and trading of crypto-assets, providing much-needed legal clarity and consumer protection:
“However, the path to effective implementation is fraught with challenges, particularly for regulators.”
Crystal Intelligence was recently selected by the European Central Bank (ECB) as its blockchain analytics partner for the upcoming MiCA implementation. The company will support the central bank in tracking on-chain activity, Navazan said:
“Our data will help the ECB better understand onchain activity in countries under its jurisdiction to support its assessment of risk and financial stability.”
Even though the correlation between the crypto sector and the Nasdaq share index has weakened recently, Bitcoin, Ethereum and co. have not been able to completely escape the sharp sell-off on the stock market. The quarterly results of big tech companies have tended to disappoint or have failed to meet overly optimistic expectations.
After all, three trillion US dollars have flowed out of the equity sector in recent days. However, the realization that AI companies such as Nvidea may not provide an economic boost as quickly as hoped is only one reason for the poor sentiment.
While it looked like the economy would remain stable in recent months, especially in the US, the tide has turned in recent days. Economic concerns are spreading rapidly in the leading industrialized nations. The previously strong USA in particular has surprised with a significantly worse unemployment rate than expected. Fewer jobs and more applications for unemployment benefits are one thing, the other is the negative outlook for the future, as suggested by the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index. This fell to its lowest level for eight months.
Leading indicators such as the copper price have been signaling weak economic prospects for weeks. While the Bank of England cut its key interest rate by 0.25% this week, the more influential Bank of Japan headed in exactly the opposite direction. The key interest rate rose from 0.1 percent to 0.25 percent. What sounds like a small step has a huge impact on the market. The years of zero interest rates in Japan have seen trillions of yen invested in American assets, from government bonds to tech stocks.
Digital Asset Market
Market report including trading idea
Last week clearly showed that the global financial markets, and tech stocks in particular, are facing major challenges in maintaining and confirming price levels. The price losses were disproportionately high and resulted in a very negative market opening on Monday. The Japanese Nikkei lost over 10% in one day – recessions are currently being confirmed and the accumulated price setbacks of many stocks are exceeding the 20% mark from the highs that have been formed. This also caused major sell-offs and setbacks in digital assets. Market investors are reacting with less risk and so, on the one hand, there is a lack of investment in the digital asset market and, on the other, sell-offs and liquidations are leading to above-average price falls.
Over the course of the week, the market lost around 25% of its capitalization. This impressively illustrates the negativity affecting the market.
The message for the coming week is: if calm and lower volatility return to the markets, then in principle every asset offers opportunities for a risk-optimized long position.
Chart technology
From a chart technical perspective, Bitcoin is now trading at February levels and has lost a large part of the year’s upswing. The psychologically important level of ~$50,000 should serve as support to support a trend reversal. Should this resistance zone be breached by continued sell-offs in the global financial markets, a confirmation of the “bear market” could follow.
If rapid positivity returns to the market, increased volatility and strong (positive) price fluctuations can be expected.
The next price targets in the event of a positive trend: ~$55,000, ~$57,500, ~$60,000
The next price targets in the event of negative performance: ~$50,000, ~$48,000 ~$45,500
Trading idea
After a solid support retracement, low-risk longs with tight stop losses in the high caps could be lucrative for medium-term positions. Above all, altcoins that have sold off sharply offer good opportunities in the future, as they have returned to levels that the market has not seen for months.
Weekly overview
As usual, we are also providing detailed videos for those who want to delve deeper into the subject.